Solar retirement wave forecaster

Watch the 2010–2026 U.S. solar build-out state by state, then see the retirement wave projected through 2036 as those fleets age out or get repowered early.

Free · no login required · data is illustrative, modeled from SEIA historical install curves

U.S. installed solar capacity by state

Cumulative MW_dc · illustrative, SEIA-derived estimates

2026

U.S. total 239 GW

50 GW

Projected U.S. solar retirements

Annual capacity exiting service, GW_dc · illustrative model

Natural end-of-life (25–30 yr fleets)Early exits: repowering, storm & hail, lease end

Modeled from the historical install curve: 25-year service life plus early-exit share rising with the mid-2010s utility-scale boom. Data is illustrative; actual retirement timing will vary by policy, equipment condition, and market conditions.

Loading map…

How to read this

The map uses illustrative estimates derived from published SEIA state-level data, interpolated between key years. It is intended to give a directional sense of where aging inventory is concentrated; it is not intended as a planning data source. The retirement chart models end-of-life based on a 25–30 year service life applied to historical install volumes, plus a rising early-exit share driven by repowerings, storm damage, and early lease terminations.

Renovo tracks actual decom and repower transactions across the states where it operates. If you are a fleet owner or developer considering a decom or repower, contact us for market-specific data.